AstralUniverse wrote: Tue Dec 06, 2022 8:42 pm
No it's quite the other way around. If you get to lower people's save to 29 THEN it becomes a true death spells meta. anyway I think I have said my piece and have no more to day. Thank you for remaining civil Yvesza.
To close on this, lets go back to the rogues saves I listed earlier.
Fortitude: 41
Reflex: 50
Will: 31
Wail of the banshee (Fort save vs death)
Weird (Will vs Fear, Fort save vs death)
Implosion (Fort save vs death)
Power word: Kill (Fort sav vs death)
We can see immediately that the rogue is in no danger of immediate death outside of rolling a 1, as all of the save vs death spells are versus fort. If we did want to reduce their saves to 29 from 41 we'd need to cast *six* 9th level spells, that's eighteen seconds of standing in place to cast spells of level 7-9 and it'd also be six of our eight level nine spells.
For the sake of a realistic example, we'll assume the following.
A wizard attacks a rogue, they cast disjunction and timestop to remove the rogues death ward. They then repeatedly cast wail of the banshee on the rogue at DC:39
Spell 1: Disjunction (Dispells death ward)
Spell 2: Timestop
Spell 3: WoB @ 95% chance to live (41 -> 39)
Spell 4: WoB @ 90.25% chance to live (39 -> 37)
Spell 5: WoB @ 81.22% chance to live (37 -> 35)
Spell 6: WoB @ 64.98% chance to live (35 -> 35)
Spell 7: WoB @ 51.98% chance to live (35 -> 35)
Assuming your target does nothing to stop you, they have a 52%~ chance that after you use *seven* level 9 spells they'll still be alive. If we drop the save cap from 35 to 29, our unfortunate rogue will survive 27.29% of the time. This is once more, using every single level 9 spell avaliable to a level 30 specialist wizard/ranger
This is of course, death spells. No one wants death spells, death spells are the least fun thing but also, the only spells that will be reliable.
Why is that?
Because a death spell kills people, yes. This sounds stupid, but it's a very important fact when comparing our death spell to a level 9 spell such as mass hold monster. You can use -all- of your level 9 spell slots in the current system for a 51.98% chance of paralyzing somebody, only for them to -pray free. Now what? Well, you can use your level 8 spell slots but... Well, the odds of success drop dramatically. This also assumes the victim does not use clarity potions, freedom of movement, mind blank or death ward. All of these will effectively immunize them to your magic until you breach or dispel them. Which also uses your very limited spell slots.
In this next example our rogue doesn't die to wail of the banshee, so the wizard switches to using Nybor's Wrathful Castigation. What do these odds look like?
Spell 1: NWC @ 95% chance to live (41 -> 39)
Spell 2: NWC @ 90.25% chance to live (39 -> 37)
Spell 3: NWC @ 85.73% chance to live (37 -> 35)
Spell 4: NWC @ 72.87% chance to live (35 -> 35)
Spell 5: NWC @ 61.94% chance to live (35 -> 35)
Spell 6: NWC @ 52.65% chance to live (35 -> 35)
And we're out of spell slots, unless you can fit in a 7th castigation which not all wizards can. Most of them have a casting stat of 38 which leaves them with 6 slots, only getting a 7th if they happen to be a specialist. This also assumes they do not prepare any casts of premonition, greater sanctuary or clenched fist (Which the last might need another topic of it's own)
Once more if we drop the save soft cap from 35 to 29 we get a survival rate of only 40.8%, which still feels unreasonably low given that this is eighteen seconds of having a wizard cast death spells at you uninterrupted. In the same period of time a martial can do an average damage of between 1,050 and 1,500 damage on average depending if they're a WM or not. (Quick maths, might be slightly off)
Now is the part that is particularly terrifying, if at any point the rogue uses -pray or greater restoration to clear their save penalty or they run at the wizard to stab them... Their fort save resets to 41 and the minor progress the wizard has made is reset to nothing. All at the cost of 15 of their highest spell slots.
Cautiously I'd suggest changing the save reduction to be -3 / -2 / -1 (7-9, 4-6, 1-3), for the sake of curiosity I wanted to take a look to see how this would turn out so I'll repeat the above but with this change.
Spell 1: Disjunction (Dispells death ward)
Spell 2: Timestop
Spell 3: WoB @ 95% chance to live (41 -> 38)
Spell 4: WoB @ 90.25% chance to live (38 -> 35)
Spell 5: WoB @ 72.2% chance to live (35 -> 35)
Spell 6: WoB @ 57.76% chance to live (35 -> 35)
Spell 7: WoB @ 46.2% chance to live (35 -> 35)
Now the rogue is less likely to survive than they are to die. The coin flip slightly favours the wizard. Again, assuming a save cap of 29.
Spell 1: Disjunction (Dispells death ward)
Spell 2: Timestop
Spell 3: WoB @ 95% chance to live (41 -> 38)
Spell 4: WoB @ 90.25% chance to live (38 -> 35)
Spell 5: WoB @ 72.2% chance to live (35 -> 32)
Spell 6: WoB @ 46.936% chance to live (32 -> 29)
Spell 7: WoB @ 23.46% chance to live (29 -> 29)
These numbers seem way more reasonable for what effectively is nearly a wizards entire arsenal of spells, but again... No one wants death spells to be this functional. Control spells are far healthier as they have significant counterplay inherent to them, not only can allies potentially clear their effects with wands of FoM and clarity, you can also -pray free and pre-emptively protect yourself with a large number of very easily accessed things.
If my math is off at all I'd love to know, but this was all done for the sake of highlighting how incredibly stacked the currently presented system is against casters and hopefully all of what I've been posting here can be used as a frame of reference.