Looking at WM Numbers

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Shadowy Reality
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Looking at WM Numbers

Post by Shadowy Reality »

I have over the years been very open voicing my opinion about Weaponmasters, and their role in making melee combat super bursty in Arelith. The idea here is to try to look at some numbers and some specific scenarios. I agree with the general community consensus that Weaponmasters are more or less balanced in the great scheme. That is, if two equally skilled players are playing fairly optimal and standard builds, and are fully buffed, then the Weaponmaster is a solid build, and not the end all. My argument here is that there are many situations where either: 1) characters are not buffed, 2) one does not have an optimal standard build, 3) a player makes a mistake during combat, and in ANY of these the weaponmaster due to its burst nature will reliably simply destroy its target without any hope of recovery, or survival.

I will be using two builds as benchmark:
Cookie Weaponmaster: the traditional 20/7/3 (bard variant) scimitar
Notable feat: Overwhelming critical

Code: Select all

AB: 47 [25 (Base) + 1 (Focus) + 2 (Epic Focus) + 1 (Prowess) + 1 (WM) + 3 (Damask) + 14 (Str)]
AC: 52 [10 (Base) + 8 (Full Plate) + 3 (Shield) +  4 (Shield Bonus) + 4 (Armour Bonus) + 1 (Boots) + 1 (Dex) + 4 (Helm Bonus) + 6 (Tumble) + 1 (Mage Armour) + 4 (Barkskin) + 4 (Haste) + 2 (Armor Skin)]
HP: 588 HP
Saves: 32/25/19 (38/32/26 vs spells)
Average Damage: 38 [3.5 (Scimitar) + 6 (masterly damask) + 4 (perm essence) + 4 (temp essence) + 14 (Str) + 2 (Specialization) + 4 (Epic Specialization)] 
Critical Average Damage: 121 (38*3 + 7 overwhelming)
Raging Weaponmaster: a barbarian19/weaponmaster7/fighter4 falchion
Notable feats: Thundering Rage

Code: Select all

AB: 49 (same as above but 2h)
AC: 40 [10 (Base) + 8 (Full Plate) + 3 (Armour Bonus) + 1 (Boots) + 1 (Dex) + 3 (Helm Bonus) + 3 (Tumble) + 1 (Mage Armour) + 4 (Barkskin) + 4 (Haste) + 2 (Armor Skin)]
HP: 638 (752 raging)
Saves: 33/24/19
Average Damage: 46 [5 (Falchion) 6 (masterly damask) + 4 (perm essence) + 4 (temp essence) + 21 (Str) + 2 (Specialization) + 4 (Epic Specialization)]
Average Damage Raging: 55
Critical Average Damage: 138
Critical Average Damage Raging: 165
I did not create any of these in PGCC, all the numbers are off my head, if a number is off, feel free to point it out. AC and saves are not too relevant for the discussion, but I added them for completeness sake.

A mage Wizard27/Ranger3 has 408 HP, a Bard26/Paladin4 has 466, buffed. If unbuffed you can remove 30, 60, or 90 HP off that, depending on how each geared.

1) characters are not buffed
The weapon master is going to at least get a flurry (2 attacks) in before its target can react. If the Raging WM criticals twice during that first flurry (roughly a 25% chance) we have the following results:
Buffed Wizard: 78 HP
Wizard -30: 48 HP
Wizard -60: 18 HP
Wizard -90: dead
Buffed Bard: 136 HP
Bard -30: 106 HP
Bard -60: 76 HP
Bard -90: 46 HP

2) the opponent does not have an optimal, standard build:
Now imagine both Wizard or Bard builds are buffed, but maybe they started with 10 Con instead of the 16 I considered for the original calculations. That’s 90 HP less for each. Look at the table above, even if buffed the Wizard is still dead and the Bard has 46 HP left.

3) the opponent misplays
Even if you are fully warded and built optimally, and have one of the standard builds, the weapon master is still going to exploit that more than any other build out there simply in virtue of its criticals. It has happened to us all, you are moving around and you misclick, you get stuck on terrain, you screw up, and you are left-flat footed.

Now combined points 1) 2) and 3) and you can see that the weaponmaster’s chance of killing its target in a split second is actually extremely high.

Vanilla Harm. Vanilla Harm makes a touch attack and places the target at 1d4 HP. Yes, NEP prevents this, just as it does now. But notice that this spell has been nerfed somewhat. It now deals 10*CL (15*CL) if you have the Death Domain, that’s 270 and 405 damage respectively. Vanilla Harm was nerfed because it was no fun that a single touch attack left your character at a death’s door. It was extremely easy to use, you just click and unless your target had a NEP potion it was going to pretty much be dead. In the scenarios above the Weaponmaster outperforms Harm in many situations, actually killing its target instead of simply leaving them at d4 HP.

If “you can just keep NEP up” is not a viable argument to balance Harm damage around then the same can be said about the Weaponmaster’s killing power when the target cannot keep its wards, HP or AC up.

How would I balance it? I would have WM either pick the increased critical threat or increased multiplier at a certain level, and instead give them more frequent bonus to AB (maybe +1 every 3 levels). They would maintain their damage output thanks to the higher AB, but without being as bursty as before.

PS: note that this bursty damage isn't something solely Weaponmasters can do, Rogues and Mages can do the same but it is generally much harder to pull off.
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Re: Looking at WM Numbers

Post by Kalopsia »

I believe another thing should be mentioned here. Whirlwind Attack, which is a prerequisite feat for Weapon Masters, is an instant, full AB attack that can be added to this first flurry for even greater damage.
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Re: Looking at WM Numbers

Post by Sockss »

I don't get it. Even without resorting to numbers and your problematic use of probability / damage calculations.

A WM starting in melee range of a caster, or someone that needs wind up is a big advantage. Agreed.
A WM fighting someone who is very buff reliant, when they're not is a big advantage. Agreed.
Making a mistake is detrimental. Agreed.

I don't believe WM's are disproportionately strong.

Lets use the same assumptions with a mage.

A mage starting at a long distance away from someone is a big advantage. Agreed?
A mage fighting someone who isn't buffed is a big advantage. Agreed?
Making a mistake fighting a mage is detrimental. Agreed?

A mage can output 537.5 damage before someone can act. You don't even need to conveniently forget AC in that calculation. It's also significantly less reliant on your opponent being a wet wipe or unlucky, so far easier to pull off.

We also have pray to try and mitigate unfavourable starts snowballing too much.

(And another edit) WM's have never been 'the meta'. They're normally B-tier and excel because they're a build which has a low skill ceiling.
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Re: Looking at WM Numbers

Post by Shadowy Reality »

Sockss wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 10:54 am Lets use the same assumptions with a mage.

A mage starting at a long distance away from someone is a big advantage. Agreed?
A mage fighting someone who isn't buffed is a big advantage. Agreed?
Making a mistake fighting a mage is detrimental. Agreed?

A mage can output 537.5 damage before someone can act. You don't even need to conveniently forget AC in that calculation. It's also significantly less reliant on your opponent being a wet wipe or unlucky, so far easier to pull off.
A mage starting at a distance is an advantage, but it does not render the other player without answer, in itself it does not make the mage deadlier.

A mage fighting someone who isn't buffed is indeed a big advantage, but I will argue that not as much as a WM fighting someone unbuffed. Saves are mostly static, you may get 1-3 points from stats, but that is it. Wards could provide immunities, yes. But if you look at the saves from the WM builds, they stand a good chance to dismiss anything that is not a Will save and even then it is about 50/50. Whereas Improved Invis, Mage Armour, Barskin greatly dimish the chances of the WM killing you outright. With the chance to -pray out of any CC. Yes, they are at disadvantage, but they are not dead.

The mage's spells do not get a higher DC when you stop moving, but the WM does hit you much easier when you get flat-footed.

How does the mage output that damage before anyone can act? Self-Hellball > Time Stop > IGMS > IGMS? -pray works there. Good luck getting a -pray off between the first WM attacks, chances are you will already be dead.

This is what I am arguing, it is that out of pretty much all the classes in Arelith, the WM punishes you the most if people aren't fighting in optmal terms.
Sockss wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 10:54 amEven without resorting to numbers and your problematic use of probability / damage calculations.
Do get into that. I can go right ahead and say that AC will be irrelevant, unless we are speaking of someone with Epic Dodge or PM levels.
My damage calculations I believe are not very off, you can take 4 damage off the temporary essence due to the 5/- protection essences and maybe 5% due to DI
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Re: Looking at WM Numbers

Post by Zaphiel »

I wish you added mage buffs to consideration before doing math.

For 27 wiz:
Premonition: 270 damage absorb in total. 30/+5 DR.
Greater Stoneskin: 150 damage absorb in total. 20/+5 DR.

Those are quite big advantage. Even person attempts to breach them, it is 1 round advantage for you to cast two spells(Assuming you are hasted) . Also there are a lot of spells to impede WM's movement speed. FOM is still breachable. Timestop is quite a big advantage because of spell combos following it. You have gate spell for delaying WM. Even WM doesn't cares the gate summon, there is quite a good chance to gate summon do good damage against WM. There are saveless spells. Greater Sanc. is a thing. Mage have a lot of tools to prevent getting one shot.

And honestly, which mage walks without wards.
Edited for grammar to make it worse, probably.
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Re: Looking at WM Numbers

Post by Sockss »

You only self hellball if a WM is in your face. Otherwise you use it for the delayed KD which gives you an extra spell and extends your nuke range, and that is how you output 537.5.

Again, fighting anyone on not optimal terms with anything is a big disadvantage.

Lets look at your own assumptions and take them as true (Though, they're not).

A WM will kill someone outright 25% of the time in your scenarios. Discounting pray.
A WM has a 50/50 chance to fail his will save.
In a round, the WM will therefore have a 75% chance to fail a will save and die. Discounting pray.

If we include pray, but only for the mage, we need 2 fails. So in a round that would be 25% chance to happen. So a 25% chance to die. Which is exactly the same.
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Re: Looking at WM Numbers

Post by Shadowy Reality »

Zaphiel wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 11:12 am I wish you added mage buffs to consideration before doing math.
That is not what I am arguing. I am not arguing that WM are entirely broken when optimal situations are met. They are mostly fine when everyone is buffed and waving at each other.

I am talking that WM are disproportionately strong when the target is in a bad situation, read: mostly unbuffed. It was intended that I did not add that to the math, precisely to show that in the situations where the mage (or any other squishier build) is caught offguard then the WM is absolutely bonkers and stands a good chance to kill outright.
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Re: Looking at WM Numbers

Post by Zaphiel »

What is the point of making comparison without looking their full potential? Because in such perspective, there would be a lot of unbalanced classes.
Edited for grammar to make it worse, probably.
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Re: Looking at WM Numbers

Post by Sockss »

Zaphiel wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 11:21 am What is the point of making comparison without looking their full potential? Because in such perspective, there would be a lot of unbalanced classes.
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Re: Looking at WM Numbers

Post by In Sorrow We Trust »

Where is the appeal in playing a weaponmaster if buffer builds don't have a disadvantage?

How many builds that need buffs don't walk around without the basics? I know I do. It's smart and the buffs last for IRL hours.

And what stops an unbuffed mage or cleric from just casting Gsanc mid-RP when hostilities start showing face and before a melee can react?
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Re: Looking at WM Numbers

Post by Shadowy Reality »

Sockss wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 11:16 am You only self hellball if a WM is in your face. Otherwise you use it for the delayed KD which gives you an extra spell and extends your nuke range, and that is how you output 537.5.

Again, fighting anyone on not optimal terms with anything is a big disadvantage.

Lets look at your own assumptions and take them as true (Though, they're not).

A WM will kill someone outright 25% of the time in your scenarios. Discounting pray.
A WM has a 50/50 chance to fail his will save.
In a round, the WM will therefore have a 75% chance to fail a will save and die. Discounting pray.

If we include pray, but only for the mage, we need 2 fails. So in a round that would be 25% chance to happen. So a 25% chance to die. Which is exactly the same.
If the math or assumptions are wrong, please correct them. We are discussing numbers, might as well.

Now, the mage starts casting, the WM hits whirlwind, and thats 3 attacks to the mage right there, before the spell goes off. Lets assume we need 2 criticals and any regular hit to kill. We are also assuming everyone is only has basic stat buffs so the WM is hitting on any 2+.

The chances to score at least 2 criticals in 3 attacks follows a binomial distribution. For p >= 2 that's 0.352. That's 35% the mage is plain out dead before doing anything.
Zaphiel wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 11:21 am What is the point of making comparison without looking their full potential? Because in such perspective, there would be a lot of unbalanced classes.
Because not all PvP takes place with everyone in full potential. It is not that uncommon for people to just be talking and then hostilities begin, at sword's distance, without any chance to buff. This is the same argument that would render Harm and Death useless because you can just keep immunities up.
In Sorrow We Trust wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 11:29 am And what stops an unbuffed mage or cleric from just casting Gsanc mid-RP when hostilities start showing face and before a melee can react?
The WM attacks. Casting is not instantaneous, whereas the first flurry of attacks is.

----
Again, the bigger point here is that the WM has the potential to straight kill someone under certain situations, without any chance to do anything. The mage does not have that potential. It has the potential to hurt a lot, to disable, but not plain out destroy without any chance of survival (there is actually a 5% chance of rolling a 1 vs a death spell).
Last edited by Shadowy Reality on Tue Apr 07, 2020 11:36 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Looking at WM Numbers

Post by Sockss »

Because it's way more fun using the incorrect maths to still poke holes in this!
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Re: Looking at WM Numbers

Post by Aeralad »

Think you all are missing Shadows point.
Harm was less and blocked by NEP. Wm is more and not blocked.
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Re: Looking at WM Numbers

Post by In Sorrow We Trust »

Attacks are not always instantaneous enough, nor necessarily do the kind of damage needed to interrupt the spell. But regardless, I'm interpreting you to be saying that; being able to stop a mage from casting a spell doesn't seem like something a melee should be able to do? You want to remove that ability from weaponmaster specifically? Help me understand.
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Re: Looking at WM Numbers

Post by Sockss »

Aeralad wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 11:37 am Think you all are missing Shadows point.
Harm was less and blocked by NEP. Wm is more and not blocked.
WM is more against certain things and in certain situations, it is blocked by many things. Such as distance, AC, concealment and damage resistance.

Harm is blocked by NEP, or concentration checks. Harm is also a stronger and more reliable nuke than a WM is in 'normal' situations.

Both are strong things when use in an optimal way against a completely disadvantaged opponent. Though this holds true for absolutely everything.
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Re: Looking at WM Numbers

Post by Zaphiel »

There are a lot of options for someone to run away. Most obvious example is mage can instantly use Improved Invisibility Wand.
Edited for grammar to make it worse, probably.
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Re: Looking at WM Numbers

Post by Shadowy Reality »

In Sorrow We Trust wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 11:39 am Attacks are not always instantaneous enough, nor necessarily do the kind of damage needed to interrupt the spell. But regardless, I'm interpreting you to be saying that; being able to stop a mage from casting a spell doesn't seem like something a melee should be able to do? You want to remove that ability from weaponmaster specifically? Help me understand.
Not stop the mage from casting. I am talking about straight killing the mage. If you are a mage, with only the regular stat buffs, maybe mage armour, and epic mage armour and I am a WM. There is a a 35% chance that you are dead before you can do anything.

I would like to remove the shotgun effect from Weaponmaster (and generally make Arelith PvP slower and less burst), without dimishing its damage output in general. Whether we are talking of mages or mundanes with less HP what I am ultimately talking about is that when facing a WM, you stand a good chance of dying before you can do anything, and that should not be a thing.
Sockss wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 11:45 am WM is more against certain things and in certain situations, it is blocked by many things. Such as distance, AC, concealment and damage resistance.
There is no situation where a mage stands a 35% chance to kill a WM without counter play. Absolutely none.
There are situations where a WM stands a 35% chance to kill a mage without counter play. Are we fine with this?
Zaphiel wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 11:50 am There are a lot of options for someone to run away. Most basic is mage can instantly use Improved Invisbility Wand.
Totally correct. But the point remains, if that WM attacks first, there is quite a chance the mage will be dead before you do anything, which I personally do not find all that interesting.
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Re: Looking at WM Numbers

Post by Zaphiel »

Totally correct. But the point remains, if that WM attacks first, there is quite a chance the mage will be dead before you do anything, which I personally do not find all that interesting.
If that mage casts first or uses wand first, there is quite a chance the mage will escape.
Edited for grammar to make it worse, probably.
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Re: Looking at WM Numbers

Post by Zaphiel »

You just trying to point something without making assumptions for both sides. I understand you probably got one shot from a WM
and trying to make points against them without considering both sides but all ends up in RP. No one going to attack you if you didn't do something that going to piss an individual or a faction. Even if you didn't piss someone off, let's say a robbery RP happening, you can just trick with RP and cast spell for running away. If you piss a faction or let's say individual and walking around without wards, there are no words.
Edited for grammar to make it worse, probably.
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Re: Looking at WM Numbers

Post by Sockss »

Shadowy Reality wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 11:53 am I would like to remove the shotgun effect from Weaponmaster (and generally make Arelith PvP slower and less burst), without dimishing its damage output in general. Whether we are talking of mages or mundanes with less HP what I am ultimately talking about is that when facing a WM, you stand a good chance of dying before you can do anything, and that should not be a thing.
Unfortunately in the current meta, melee's need burst or they can't kill anyone.

As shown, mages can be more bursty than WM's, and they're not the only thing.
Shadowy Reality wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 11:53 am There is no situation where a mage stands a 35% chance to kill a WM without counter play. Absolutely none.
There are situations where a WM stands a 35% chance to kill a mage without counter play. Are we fine with this?
Not at all fine with this. Lets put mind fog in the mix! Or non-geared WM's. Or WM's with 8 con. Or maybe it's 2020 and we learn that CON casters > stat casters. Or we have any other equally as ludicrous scenarios that could and have definitely happened but we don't balance around because it's frankly silly to balance around ineptitude.
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Re: Looking at WM Numbers

Post by Aeralad »

Zaphiel, you really are missing the point as I can see it. Sockss is talking about it now.
Hmm....
I don't think ineptitude is the word that best represents the situation there Sockss.
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Re: Looking at WM Numbers

Post by Zaphiel »

Aeralad wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 12:04 pm Zaphiel, you really are missing the point as I can see it. Sockss is talking about it now.
Hmm....
I don't think ineptitude is the word that best represents the situation there Sockss.
The scenario he is talking about have very low chance to happen. And asking for nerf around this scenario is just ridiculous.
Edited for grammar to make it worse, probably.
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Re: Looking at WM Numbers

Post by Sockss »

You're right, talking smack to a burly PC with their sword down your throat and then complaining that 35% of the time they kill you is something else. :D

I for one think it should be 100%.
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Re: Looking at WM Numbers

Post by Aeralad »

Zaphiel wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 12:07 pm
The scenario he is talking about have very low chance to happen. And asking for nerf around this scenario is just ridiculous.
Ah well I disagree as one fellow player on that point. I'll let others explain further if they like. Just wanted to get it back to the point as I saw it.
Last edited by Aeralad on Tue Apr 07, 2020 12:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Looking at WM Numbers

Post by Shadowy Reality »

Sockss wrote: Tue Apr 07, 2020 12:01 pm Unfortunately in the current meta, melee's need burst or they can't kill anyone.
As shown, mages can be more bursty than WM's, and they're not the only thing.
I agree. Mages can be bursty. Many other classes can be bursty. But this is fighting fire with fire, if you accept this all we are doing is creating builds that maximize the chance to kill while minimizing the counter play the other person can have.

I choose WMs mostly because of all classes guilty of this, they require the least effort, they do not require haste, they cannot do this only once per rest, you literally just need to be there and click a button, and your target may very well die instantly.

I do not think there is anyone that enjoys any instance of PvP where you are just destroyed before having a chance to do anything. I think that truly is terrible gameplay and hurts RP the most. PvP in epics generally becomes less epic due to how quick it tends to be.

Ultimately, what would really happen if we were to make WM something along these lines:
WM 5 you pick either increased threat or increased multiplier
Every 3 WM levels you get +1 AB.

Would we see a lot less WMs around because of that? I don't think so. Would the class be entirely destroyed? I do not think so either. You lose burst. But in exchange you get more AB, and there is actually a good reason to go beyond WM 7, opening a bit of build diversity. They will be slightly hindered in the current PvP meta, but I am still convinced it is a move in the right direction in the long term.
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