My character is exiled from Guldorand.
For about a month, I could disguise and walk into the city and buildings and RARELY get kicked out, perhaps once out of twelve or more tries. I assume this was a dice roll of 1. The wiki lists the DC for disguise at 40. My PC has a disguise of 104.
The longer the exile status remains, the more difficult it is to get in. Yesterday I was kicked out over five times trying to get into city or into buildings. Not sure if this is a bug in the city or on my PC.